Brazil's solar+wind sector lost R$ 6.5 bn (≈ $1.2 bn) through curtailment in 2025 — and since Law 15.269/2025 of 24 November 2025, the compensation claim for most of it has been removed. ANEEL ordered a 90-day suspension of all running compensations on 20 January 2026. Stromfee.ai forensics is the missing plausibility layer for the emerging ACL PPA disputes.
Brazil's electricity sector is divided since the 2004 reform: regulated market ACR (Ambiente de Contratação Regulada) and free market ACL (Ambiente de Contratação Livre). Three ACR auction types are relevant for solar: LEN (Energia Nova, 15-30y CCEAR), LER (Reserva, historically the main solar path), Reserva de Capacidade (since 2021, contracts capacity). ACL is private PPAs with freely negotiated prices, ≥0.5 MW (since Law 14.300 + 2024 reform).
Settlement by CCEE: Hourly settlement (PLD horário since 2021). For 2026: PLD floor R$ 57.31/MWh (Itaipu TEO value), structural maximum R$ 785.27/MWh, hourly maximum R$ 1.611.04/MWh (Portaria ANEEL Nº 7.030/2025). Brazil has NO negative PLD — the spot market can structurally never fall below R$ 57.31/MWh. So the German §51-EEG equivalent is missing. Curtailment is physical (ONS order), not market-price driven — making the Stromfee plausibility layer even more important than in DE.
| Actor | Role | DE comparison |
|---|---|---|
| MME | Ministry of Mines and Energy, political steering | BMWK |
| ANEEL | Regulator, auctions, tariff resolutions | BNetzA |
| CCEE | Câmara de Comercialização, settlement | — |
| ONS | National System Operator, physical dispatch (SIN) | German TSOs |
| Comercializadoras | Private energy traders, ACL aggregators | Direct marketers (DV) |
| Distribuidoras | DSOs, ACR end-customer suppliers | Municipal utility + DSO |
Solar+wind H1 2025 total: 20.6 % curtailment, R$ 6.5 bn loss (pv magazine International 02 Feb 2026). Solar-only H1 2025: 21 %. Solar August 2025: 20 % (vs. August 2024: 12 %). Bahia >30 % (top curtailment state). Engie Brasil: 34.2 % solar curtailment 2025. Auren Energia: 23.6 % wind. ABSOLAR estimate solar-only Jan-July 2025: R$ 3.2 bn.
Cause mapping (ONS): Transmission bottlenecks Northeast→Southeast (500-kV line Olindina/Sapeaçu Bahia: export capacity 13 GW → 18 GW only expanded 2025-2026, still insufficient); local oversupply 54 % of all curtailment events per ONS mapping (Northeast midday hours); operational protection limits (frequency, voltage, reserves); energy security criteria (smaller).
On 24 Nov 2025, Law 15.269/2025 was signed by President Lula with vetoes.
The broad curtailment compensation mechanism was VETOED
(R$ 6 bn tariff impact avoidance as justification). Remaining compensable: only
indisponibilidade externa (external unavailability, e.g. third-party line failure)
and confiabilidade elétrica (grid security).
Oversupply curtailment (main share 54 %) is no longer compensable since Law 15.269/2025.
ANEEL ordered a 90-day suspension on 20 Jan 2026 of all curtailment compensations
(precautionary measure under Law 15.269/2025). MME opened a Consulta Pública on a
Termo de Compromisso mechanism. STJ had already on 22 Jan 2025
(Justice Herman Benjamin) overturned the TRF-1 decisions in favour of compensation.
Stromfee implication: With the veto, the non-compensated curtailment volumes
grow massively. The forensic separation of oversupply curtailment (not compensable)
vs. external unavailability (compensable) is the new key question —
exactly where the Stromfee 4-mirror methodology (plant / market / grid / marketer) works.
PROINFA (Law 10.438/2002) covered only small hydro (PCH), biomass, and first-generation wind — solar was never originally in. Today's relevant solar compensation mechanism runs through CCEE constrained-off apuração based on ANEEL Resolução Normativa 1.030/2022 (Despacho 1.668/2022 as provisional). Law 15.269/2025 allows PROINFA extension only for PCH/biomass/wind, no new solar inclusion.
How solar ressarcimento technically works (pre-Law 15.269/2025):
| Source | What it delivers | Access |
|---|---|---|
| ONS Open Data | Constrained-off dataset (plant + subsystem), hourly generation | Portal + AWS Open Data Registry (S3 mirror) |
| CCEE Open Data | PLD horário (since 2021), CO apuração quantities per plant | API + bulk download |
| ANEEL Open Data | Plant register (Outorgas, CER/RC), resoluções, tariffs | Portal |
| INPE LABREN / SONDA | Ground radiation (GHI/DNI 1-min) Petrolina, Caicó, Natal, São Luís | labren.ccst.inpe.br |
| Open-Meteo / ECMWF-IFS | 15-min radiation gap filler (Lotter pattern) | free API |
| Greener / Canal Solar / MegaWhat / Brasil Energia | Market research + daily news | commercial / free |
Asset Management dominant: Power Factors (Unity platform, >50 GW global), Schneider Electric, ABB, WEG. Local: GoodWe Brasil, Edasolar, Solys (GD segment). Solar+Financing combined: Solfácil (fintech, QED-financed, GD focus), Hop Solar, SolarLabs Brasil. Curtailment specific: Volt Robotics (forecast algorithms, Eletrobras partner) and PSR Consultoria — but no forensic direct-marketer plausibility.
A specialised curtailment forensics software for IPPs proving "a direct marketer/off-taker has unjustly curtailed a plant" does NOT exist in Brazil as a dedicated product. Most IPPs forward their data via Excel to auditors and lawyers. For ACL PPAs this is particularly serious because no central compensation methodology exists — all bilateral, all dispute-prone.
| Company | Solar portfolio BR | Curtailment 2025 | Owner / HQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Engie Brasil Energia | extensive (incl. former Atlas) | 34.2 % solar | ENGIE FR, B3-listed |
| Auren Energia (with AES Brasil) | Mix wind/solar, top 3 BR | 23.6 % wind, solar n/a | Votorantim + Itaúsa |
| Atlas Renewable Energy | Casablanca (600 MWp), Vista Alegre (902 MWp) | n/a, but BR layoff 2026 | Actis (UK), HQ Miami |
| Statkraft Brasil | 2.3 GW renewable | high Bahia | Statkraft NO |
| EDP Brasil | mixed | n/a | EDP PT, B3-listed |
| EDF Renewables Brasil | mixed | n/a | EDF FR |
| Voltalia | O&M giant (8 GW UM) | n/a | Voltalia FR |
| Mendubim consortium | 531 MW Mendubim RN | high, PPA risk | Scatec + Equinor + Hydro Rein |
Sector laws: Law 9.427/1996 (ANEEL), Law 9.648/1998 (ONS), Law 10.438/2002 (PROINFA, CDE), Law 10.848/2004 + Decree 5.163/2004 (Model reform 2004, ACR/ACL split), Law 14.300/2022 (Marco Legal Mikro/Mini-GD, Fio-B phase-out to 2028), Law 15.829/2023 (market opening), Law 15.269/2025 (24 Nov 2025, largest reform since 2004 — curtailment veto).
ANEEL secondary law: RN 482/2012, RN 687/2015, RN 827/2018 (constrained-off methodology), RN 956/2021, RN 1.030/2022 (the disputed curtailment rule — STJ Jan 2025 overturned in favour of ANEEL), Despacho 1.668/2022 (provisional for solar apuração), Portaria ANEEL Nº 7.030/2025 (PLD limits 2026).
Capacity factor 26 % → gross generation 456 GWh/yr.
Curtailment rate 25 % (Bahia average) → 114 GWh/yr curtailed.
Average lost value PPA 200 R$/MWh (ACR typical) → R$ 22.8 M/yr gross damage.
Pre-Law 15.269: 60-80 % compensable.
Post-Law 15.269: only 10-20 % external unavailability = R$ 2-4.5 M residual claim.
Stromfee forensics target: the remaining R$ 18-20 M (plausibility against
direct marketer / off-taker / ONS order reasoning).
| Association / Firm | Profile | Stromfee relevance |
|---|---|---|
| ABSOLAR | Conselho: Ronaldo Koloszuk · CEO: Rodrigo Lopes Sauaia · Av. Paulista 1.439 SP · >600 members | First contact #1 |
| ABEEólica | Pres. Elbia Gannoum · demands R$ 2 bn solution from MME | Cross-lobby solar+wind |
| Law firms (Top-Tier energy law) | ||
| Mattos Filho | Practice "Electric Power", 100+ deals 2025 | Big law, M&A + regulatory |
| Pinheiro Neto Advogados | Energy team large, 100+ deals 2025 | Top-tier |
| Trench Rossi Watanabe (Baker McKenzie) | Published legal alert on Law 15.269/2025 | Special Law 15.269 knowledge |
| Cortez Pimentel Advogados | Boutique with MME consulta comment on Termo de Compromisso | Recommended counsel partner |
A dedicated Stromfee software solution for Brazilian law firms for curtailment-ressarcimento evidence-building is currently being developed — Team: Holger Roswandowicz (Stromfee.ai) · Diekmann (audit) · Axel. Focus: Lei-15.269/2025 post-veto forensics for ACL PPAs + Termo-de-Compromisso disputes before MME/ANEEL. Status: May 2026 in concept phase.
Recommended first-contact sequence: (1) ABSOLAR — Rodrigo Sauaia (CEO) direct with Law 15.269 pitch. (2) Trench Rossi Watanabe OR Cortez Pimentel as counsel partner for Termo-de-Compromisso disputes. (3) Mini-pilot with Atlas Vista Alegre (902 MWp) OR Mendubim consortium (PPA curtailment risk forensics). (4) Parallel ABEEólica (Elbia Gannoum) for wind cross-sell potential.